Steven A. Cook
How significant was the weekend exchange of attacks between Israel and Hezbollah?
The Israelis have warned since the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s leader Fuad Shukr in recent weeks that they would preempt any impending retaliatory attack. That is precisely what happened on Sunday. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly targeted six thousand Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon in a significant demonstration of both force and technical capability. Even so, Hezbollah was able to launch more than two hundred rockets and drones at northern Israel, causing limited damage.
It seems clear that while the Israelis have not deterred Hezbollah from firing on Israel, the IDF’s demonstration of force against the Lebanon-based militant group over the last eleven months, combined with Sunday’s preemption, have compelled Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah to think twice about launching more significant attacks on central Israel and critical Israeli infrastructure. After declaring Hezbollah’s operation on Sunday a success (it was not), Nasrallah indicated that he would prefer to avoid any further escalation.
What are the chances of a sharp escalation between the two sides, including an Israeli ground offensive?
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