Stephen Cimbala & Adam Lowther
The member-states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) face an unprecedented challenge in Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and their threats to employ nuclear weapons against NATO.1 There is also the potential risk of Chinese aggression against Taiwan; should the United States come to the aid of Taiwan and China attack the United States, the US would likely seek support under Article 5 of the NATO charter. Either directly or indirectly, Europe cannot avoid the consequences of a war in the Pacific. This makes it imperative for NATO member-states that deterrence holds.
The following discussion identifies eight of the most important challenges facing alliance efforts to maintain deterrence. The reality of modern deterrence is that it is more uncertain, and difficult to maintain because of the added complexities of the cyber and space domains and additional post-Cold War geopolitical variables. With both the space and cyber domains playing a prominent role that did not exist during the Cold War and new technologies reshaping deterrence, understanding deterrence is certainly a more pressing need than ever before.
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