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24 September 2024

Strategic Surprise—Always?

Azar Gat

The Complete Success of Strategic Surprises in the 20th Century

A strategic surprise is a surprise at the very beginning of a war. This is in contrast to operational or tactical surprises during a war, which have a mixed record—some succeed and some fail.

It is agreed that the failure to recognize an impending attack is usually attributed not only to the intelligence agencies per se, but also to the underlying political conception and military command. As in other cases of strategic surprises in the 20th century, the failures of October 6, 1973, and October 7, 2023, were not confined to intelligence shortcomings alone. They also involved the political leadership, beyond just the level of formal responsibility. In this context, some have argued that heads of government have a better understanding than the intelligence agencies of the adversary’s leaders, culture, and goals. This argument was particularly true of the Israeli cabinet in 1973. As members of Israel’s founding generation, they, especially the then Minister of Defense Moshe Dayan, had extensive political and military experience. However, it is doubtful whether this argument applies to all other cases, or to the events of October 7, 2023. Nevertheless, it does not change the fact that the prevailing political conception in Israel of Hamas played a significant role in that failure.


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