Pavel K. Baev
The impact of Ukraine’s August 6 offensive operation into Kursk oblast remains an open strategic question following four weeks of increasingly intense and fluid fighting (see EDM, August 14, 15). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first reaction to this incursion was clearly misinformed by intelligence assessments portraying it as just another tactical raid. It was only on August 24 that he found time for an extensive briefing with the Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov and his first deputy, Colonel General Sergey Rudskoy (RBC; Kremlin.ru, August 24). The top brass did not have any good news for the commander-in-chief, but he apparently did not demand a decisive counterattack aimed at the complete expulsion of enemy troops from Russian territory. While some “patriotic” Russian bloggers claim that the Kursk battle signifies the transformation of the “special military operation” into a real war, Putin prefers to define Russian defensive battles as a counter-terrorist operation (TopWar.ru, August 29). Putin’s lack of initiative in countering this incursion demonstrates how he is trying to avoid the perception within Russia that Ukraine is a formidable foe and that Moscow may not be able to win this war.
On the Kremlin’s instruction, Russian mainstream media has downplayed the significance of the Ukrainian offensive and sought to present the continuing retreats of Russia’s forces and citizens from Kursk villages as a “new normal” (Meduza, August 21). Russian society finds this reassurance comforting but far from convincing, and the hidden angst translates into diminishing support for Putin’s war policy, which even the official polling agencies have not quite been able to camouflage (The Moscow Times, August 30). Economic consequences of the unfolding calamity are accumulating slowly, and many Russians are relieved that no new sacrifices are required and that rumors about a new mobilization are growing old (The Moscow Times, August 23; Svoboda.org, August 30). The families of conscripts are anxious about the fate of poorly trained soldiers, and the approaching autumn conscription cycle casts a gloomy shadow (Svoboda.org, August 21; Vedomosti, August 26).
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