Andrew A. Michta
The world today is more fractured and unstable than at any time since the end of the Cold War, and by all indications we are heading for a period of protracted systemic instability, with Europe, the Middle East and the Indo-Pacific increasingly at risk of descending into a wider general war. The war in Ukraine is in its third year since Russia’s second invasion, and the war in the Middle East threatens to escalate into a major regional conflict between Israel and Iran. China and Russia are arming at speed and scale, while the United States and its European allies continue to lag when it comes to defense spending and defense production. Russia and China are de facto allies, having openly declared a “no-limits” partnerships that forms the core of the new “Axis of Dictatorships,” aided and supported by Iran and North Korea. China, which has surpassed the United States as the manufacturing powerhouse, continues to bid for regional hegemony in the Indo-Pacific as it works to unravel the power balance in Asia. For its part, Russia continues to pursue its revisionist course in an attempt to re-litigate the post-Cold War settlement and re-establish its empire in Eastern Europe. At the same time, the United States is politically split, threatened both from within and without. And while NATO maintains its political support for Ukraine, Europe remains divided when it comes to appetite for risk-taking, with countries further away from the eastern flank reluctant to spend the money to rearm.
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