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24 September 2024

Paging Conflict in Lebanon

Greg Priddy

Lebanon today witnessed another round of hundreds of explosions, this time of handheld radios issued by Hezbollah, one day after a similar episode involving pagers. Twelve people have been confirmed dead in the pager blasts, with around 2,800 injured. Today’s blasts will add to that. Israel has not denied responsibility, and sources quoted anonymously have said the United States was informed in general terms by Israel that an operation was about to be carried out in Lebanon. For the United States, which has for nearly a year been trying to contain the war in Gaza and prevent the low-level exchanges of fire in southern Lebanon from escalating into a broader regional conflict, this is a most unwelcome development. It raises the question: why does Israel appear to be trying to goad Hezbollah into escalation in Lebanon? And why do it right now?

Meanwhile, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is in Cairo for yet another round of negotiations between Israel and Hamas, mediated by the United States, Qatar, and Egypt. However, it has become quite apparent that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a lasting cease-fire in Gaza, which would lead the two extreme-right parties in his coalition to bring down his government and lead to a focus on the “day after” in Gaza, where the United States would likely push against an Israeli reoccupation. It also would, however, likely lead to an end to Hezbollah’s attacks on the northern border areas of Israel, for now.


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