Doug Livermore
It’s very difficult to understand the progress of a military operation, even if you’re there. If you’re somewhere else, it’s even tougher, given that both sides highlight success and downplay failure. When, for example, was the outcome and significance of the Battle of the Bulge understood? It took a while.
So it’s early to declare Kursk a success or failure, or even a draw. Even so, there are signs emerging from reliable analytical sources that Ukraine’s operation is having at least some effect on its most important aim — to siphon Russian forces from Eastern Ukraine to Kursk and so weaken its successful offensive in Donbas.
Estimates suggest there is a substantial movement of forces into Kursk Oblast. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) cites Ukrainian estimates that troop numbers rose to around 40,000 from about 11,000 at the start of the incursion. The Ukrainians say another 20,000 are on the way.
ISW stated that Ukraine has “forced the Russian military command to redeploy elements from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast and commit newly generated forces from within Russia to the area instead of the frontline in Ukraine.”
No comments:
Post a Comment