Nigel Li
Over five decades into the “Asian peace,” there are reasons to be pessimistic about the future security of the Indo-Pacific. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has ignited concerns of conflict in Asia and Moscow’s nuclear threats have unearthed the specter of nuclear war as China rapidly augments its nuclear capabilities. An escalating arms race between the U.S. and China will inevitably leave non-nuclear weapon states caught in the middle. But all is not lost. In Asia, there are existing security mechanisms that could be revitalized to reinforce strategic stability. One of those mechanisms is the Southeast Asia Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (SEANWFZ).
SEANWFZ, otherwise known as the Bangkok Treaty, was a product of the early post-Cold War era when arms control and disarmament were on a positive trajectory. Entering into force in 1997, the 10 member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) vowed to not develop, manufacture, acquire, possess or control nuclear weapons within the zone. It also includes protocols, still awaiting the signatures of the five permanent (P5) members of the U.N. Security Council, that would obligate them to forgo the threat or use of nuclear weapons against members of the treaty. Only after the 2021 founding of AUKUS — a U.S.-UK-Australian security partnership — did China express its interest in signing the protocols provided the other P5 states did the same.
The most recent nuclear weapon-free zone, the Central Asian Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (CANWFZ), which entered into force in March 2009, has been ratified by all of the P5 except the United States (the United States has signed the Protocol but has yet to ratify it). This shows that interest remains in realizing the aspirations of non-nuclear weapon states and their desire to secure regional neighborhoods free of nuclear weapons.
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