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4 September 2024

Interview: Ukraine's Bold Strike Into Russia Is A Tactical Win With Unclear Strategic Benefits

Vazha Tavberidze

Emil Kastehelmi is an open source intelligence (OSINT) analyst and military history expert working at the Black Bird Group, which is headquartered in Finland and currently focused on following and analyzing Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In a recent interview with RFE/RL's Georgian Service, Kastehelmi says Ukraine's incursion of Russia's Kursk region has caught Russian President Vladimir Putin off guard and proved that Ukraine is still capable of launching offensive actions, shifting attention from Kyiv's "problems to its achievements." But the operation is also fraught with risk, Kastehelmi argues, and its strategic value is still unclear.

RFE/RL: Let's start with a situational update of sorts, a brief summary of what has actually transpired, and how massive this incursion is in what has happened over the course of the war?

Emil Kastehelmi: Well, first of all, the Kursk offensive [is] most likely the summer offensive of Ukraine in 2024. It's not just the border incursion anymore, in my opinion. We can think about it in many ways. If we look at the gained square kilometers, it's, of course, rather successful. It has succeeded better than last year's summer offensive of Ukraine. It's the biggest offensive into Russian soil since World War II. It's also historically really a significant event.

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