How Irregular Warfare Can Find—and Exploit—the Vulnerabilities in China’s Defense Industrial Base

Lumpy Lumbaca

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As the United States and China are locked in strategic competition with one another, China’s increasingly dangerous and illegal activities in the gray zone form one of the most potent legs of its approach to that competition. The United States, however, is not without means of leveraging its own effective but legal activities. It can meaningfully affect the strategic balance between the two countries by more aggressively targeting China’s vulnerabilities—efforts that can be specifically aimed at deterring destabilizing behavior. China’s defense industrial base, the policies and essential infrastructure supporting its military industrial complex, is one such area where US activities can have such an effect. Disrupting this base could significantly erode China’s military capacity, giving the United States and its allies a strategic advantage in the global balance of power. The capabilities and methods employed to achieve this effect are already in the US military’s irregular warfare toolbox, and an irregular warfare campaign, if carefully calculated to be both effective and non-escalatory, could have outsized impact on the strategic competition between the United States and China.

China’s rise as a global military power has been underpinned by a rapidly developed defense industrial base, a formidable engine for producing conventional military capacity, space technology, advanced weaponry, and the influence that derives from these advancements. This transformation is the result of substantial investments, technological progress, and a focused strategy on enhancing military capabilities across various sectors, including aerospace, shipbuilding, electronics, and weapons manufacturing. Of course, a full understanding of China’s industrial policy remains elusive, and intelligence capabilities and strategic attention should be deliberately aimed at closing this gap. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to conclude that the defense industrial base is not only vital for China’s military but also plays a crucial role in its overall economic power, generating jobs and driving technological innovation. Despite these advancements, China’s defense industrial base remains vulnerable to various forms of disruption, making it a strategic target for the United States.