YU JIE
While the rest of the world weighs the impact of a Donald Trump or a Kamala Harris victory in November’s US presidential election, both candidates present serious challenges for China. To be sure, neither seems to want open conflict between the two powers, which could precipitate a nightmarish descent into global chaos. But Chinese decision-makers expect bitter disputes over trade, technology, and Taiwan regardless of who wins.
China is preparing for more turbulence by taking a whole-country approach to its relations with the US. That means moving beyond the realm of foreign affairs and coordinating with economic policymakers, military personnel, and technology leaders, as well as mobilizing resources across the country. Such an approach is informed by the US strategy of containment, which in recent years has included relentless efforts to maintain America’s technological supremacy, curb China’s access to the global market, and build a coalition of allies, both in Asia and elsewhere, to tackle the “China challenge.” Feeling under siege, China is girding itself for long-term enmity with the world’s largest economy.
As part of this process, China has shifted its economic paradigm away from chasing growth at any cost to building a resilient economy that is driven by innovation and can cope with protracted geopolitical tensions. By accelerating domestic innovation, Chinese President Xi Jinping also aims to restructure the economy and help reduce its overreliance on the property sector. The recently concluded third plenum of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee gave the final stamp of approval for this massive overhaul.
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