Reuben F. Johnson
Ukraine's bold incursion into the Kursk region of Russia on August 6 has—as one correspondent covering the conflict described—"upend[ed] assumptions" about Russia's capacity to continue prosecuting this war.
This is not an outlook prompted by Ukraine's surprising territorial gains. In February 2022 Russians were promised a lightning-speed takeover of Ukraine that never came to pass. Hundreds of thousands are now dead, and among the Russian population, there are increasing negative impressions of the efficacy of President Vladimir Putin's rule.
A first-order consequence of this public mood is a dampening effect on Putin's efforts to mobilize more military manpower. The Russian Army requires 25,000 new replacements per month, which are increasingly difficult to come by.
In parallel, a shortage of 400,000 workers for the defense industry slows down replacing military hardware destroyed in battle. The combination could force Moscow to either reduce its war effort or risk a collapse of its military—or even a breakup of Russia itself.
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