Frank Hoffman
Wise leaders recognize that history does not follow a fixed linear path, and that the greater the uncertainty, the greater the value of examining alternative futures. The use (and the abuse) of scenarios is well established in the corporate world. Scenarios are used to explore the range of possible futures in the defense-planning business, as they help address the plausible multiple futures that policymakers may have to face. This article addresses potentially troubling scenarios involving the Russo-Ukrainian war that will impact US policy in the near future.
As the noted futurist Peter Schwartz stresses, scenario planning is purpose-built for uncertain times. Scenarios are not predictions, instead they are an antidote against false certainty and presumption predictions by policymakers. They best serve as a catalyst for serious reflection about critical assumptions. This prepares decision-makers for inevitable surprises that may arise, making their institutions more resilient and responsive. I fear the war in Ukraine will not continue as a stalemate for long, and US decision-makers need to be prepared to adapt quickly to changing circumstances.
There has been a proliferation of scenario-based assessments about Ukraine recently, indicating a high degree of uncertainty in today’s security environment. Strategic analysts at the Stimson Center have explored scenarios centered around a US retrenchment from Europe. A European think tank has posited six “scary policy scenarios” anticipating a change in the US government. Another excellent product was produced by the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy in Brussels titled Shades of Grim: Scenarios for Ukraine and Global Order.
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