John Raine
Israel has shifted gear in Lebanon. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statement that making the north of Israel safe for Israelis to return is now his nation’s war aim was followed by a wave of exploding Hizbollah communication devices targeted at commanders and members in Lebanon. While Hizbollah and Lebanon were reeling, Israel moved two IDF Divisions to its north and intensified bombardments of targets into southern Lebanon. Its actions as much as its statements have confirmed that it is entering a new phase of its war with Hizbollah.
All this may or may not be a precursor to all-out war, in which the IDF enters Lebanon and seeks to inflict permanent, debilitating damage on Hizbollah, not only in southern Lebanon, but in the Beqaa valley and Beirut. Whatever shape the next phase takes it is now clear that Israel is rendering obsolete the paradigm of violent co-existence within which it has fought Hizbollah for decades.
That is a problem for the Hizbollah leadership, which has relied on being able to fight a limited war in which they exercised control over the levels of violence through careful calibration of their operations. They may no longer have that lever, and they and their patrons, Iran, may now need a new strategy to ensure their own survival. What are their options?
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