Chase Metcalf and John Nagl
The Russo-Ukraine war rages on, thirty months after Russia expanded its invasion of Ukraine. The largest land war in Europe since World War II continues to consume personnel and materiel at a disturbing rate. While the costs of this war continue to mount, neither side is eager to compromise, and both seek to exhaust the other’s political will and capacity to continue.
Even the recent Kursk offensive by Ukraine, while demonstrating an ability to “win” and thus sustaining Western support, does not fundamentally change the strategic correlation of forces or the trajectory of the conflict: Russian President Vladimir Putin appears convinced he can outlast the West. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy likely believes his ability to compromise is limited, given Russian brutality and the enormous sacrifices Ukraine has made to date. Further, Ukrainians fear that any pause in the fighting will only allow Russia time to rebuild its military and renew the war in the future.
Russia’s war on Ukraine is a blatant war of aggression and violation of international norms that is reshaping the geopolitical landscape. This war is leading to increased collaboration between an Axis of Upheaval consisting of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, who seek to create an alternative to the existing international order. The recent Commission on the National Defense Strategy has characterized the world we face as “the most challenging and most dangerous international security environment since World War II,” and Phillip Zelikow, respected historian and diplomat, argues we face a period of enormous risk, putting the chance of broader global war at 20–30 percent. The threats are real, and the war in Ukraine continues to consume much-needed resources while creating a risk of escalation.
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