Brent Sadler and Elizabeth Lapporte
Recent developments in China’s military operations necessitate a reevaluation of how the United States and its allies handle Beijing’s increasingly provocative behavior. China conducted its Joint Sword-2024A exercise just days after the inauguration of Taiwan’s new president in May 2024. This drill underscores China’s readiness to execute short-notice major military operations.1 As of this writing, that exercise remains the highest recorded activity of People’s Liberation Army Air Force aircraft near Taiwan this year. Specifically, of 62 detected aircraft, 47 crossed the median line in the Taiwan Strait—a highly provocative move. For historical context, between 1954 and 2020, only four Chinese aircraft had crossed the median line; now it is a routine occurrence. This Joint Sword exercise reflects a broader pattern observed since 2022: increased military activity that has normalized heightened Chinese provocative operations.2 This activity will persist to deadly conclusion if the U.S. and its allies do not respond soon.
Such activities have a purpose: to lull neighbors into apathy toward a military that is ready for rapid mobilization to execute aggression. Taiwan’s absorption into the Chinese mainland is an often-stated Chinese Communist Party (CCP) core national interest. China’s increasing military activities overall should therefore be viewed with Taiwan and a potential showdown with the U.S. in mind.
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