Thiago de Aragao
The ongoing tension between the United States and China has been a focal point in international relations, with Taiwan often at the center of these discussions. However, despite the frequent portrayal by the U.S. that a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent, the reality within China suggests a more nuanced strategy. China’s leadership is acutely aware that an invasion of Taiwan would not only risk demolishing the country’s economic machinery but could also destabilize the Chinese Communist Party of China (CCP) in ways never before seen.
The CCP’s legitimacy has long been tied to the economic prosperity of the nation. This prosperity has been the bedrock of stability in China, allowing the government to maintain control without the need for widespread repression. However, in times of economic fluctuation, nationalism becomes an important tool to maintain internal legitimacy. Taiwan, therefore, becomes a recurring, highly symbolic issue, evoked to rally nationalistic sentiments among the Chinese populace.
There are three primary ways an undemocratic government can impose itself on its people: economic prosperity, nationalism, and repression. China is fully aware that an invasion of Taiwan would likely force it to lean more heavily on nationalism as a mechanism of social legitimacy. However, such a move would simultaneously disrupt the very economic stability that underpins the CCP’s rule.
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