30 September 2024

Agni-IV Missile Test Bolsters India’s Nuclear Deterrence

Debalina Ghoshal

Nuclear deterrence is existential. States will have myriad ways to strengthen their nuclear deterrence: through land-based, aerial based, and sea-based nuclear weapons delivery mechanisms. Irrespective of the delivery platforms, nuclear signaling is crucial to nuclear deterrence. There is limited relevance of nuclear weapons unless a strong signaling is achieved. Such signaling could be both strategically and politically relevant. In 2015, when Iran developed its nuclear capable long range cruise missile, the Soumar, the missile had political and strategic signaling strings attached to it.

In September 2024, India successfully test-fired the intermediate range Agni-IV nuclear-capable ballistic missile. The success of the missile test signaled many parameters of nuclear deterrence. The missile was operationally ready while its technical parameters were also validated through the successful test. Operational readiness of nuclear delivery systems is another key factor that determines nuclear deterrence.

Mere possession of nuclear delivery systems is not enough: they need to be operationally prepared for quick response. Frequent testing of missile systems is one way to ensure operational readiness by validating relevant technological parameters that would enable the missile to not just take off during crisis situation but also be able to deliver the payload to assigned target, thus ensuring reliability. This can be ensured when missiles meet all trial objectives during their flight tests.

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