Peter Leavy
Recent Chinese maritime activity around the Second Thomas Shoal marks a potentially new and more aggressive stage in China’s campaign to extend control over the South China Sea. Concerningly, the same type of behaviour has now expanded to Sabina Shoal, only 86 nautical miles from the Philippines island of Palawan. Chinese assertiveness is spreading laterally, becoming more violent, and may well be tied to new laws China recently granted itself.
China has long used “lawfare” – leveraging legal systems and principles to achieve military and strategic objectives – to exploit the seams that democracies have between military and civilian activities. They create and exploit legal ambiguities as part of a deliberate strategy. As the PLA Daily commented in describing the People’s Armed Force Maritime Militia (PAFMM), a para-military organisation: “Putting on camouflage, they qualify as soldiers; taking off the camouflage, they become law-abiding fishermen.”
On 15 June, China implemented the “Provisions on Administrative Enforcement Procedures for Coast Guard Agencies 2024”, also known as CCG Order #3. This law allows China Coast Guard (CCG) commanders to detain foreign vessels and personnel for up to 30 days (or 60, for “complicated” issues) if they are in “waters under Chinese jurisdiction”. Such jurisdiction is not defined, although it is likely based on the flawed Nine-Dash Line concept that the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled illegal in 2016.
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