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27 August 2024

Why hasn’t Iran attacked Israel to avenge Hamas’s leader?

Dov S. Zakheim

Nearly a month has passed since Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in a Tehran guest house belonging to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran blamed Israel for the Hamas leader’s death from a remotely denoted explosive, which appears to have been planted nearly two months earlier. Two IRGC operatives were reportedly responsible for planting that explosive.

Despite Israel refusing to confirm or deny that it had a hand in Haniyeh’s death, the Iranian government has vowed revenge. Iran has rejected pleas from both the U.S. and European leaders not to attack Israel, which could lead to an expansion of the current hostilities, thus far limited to the war in Gaza and limited exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah. Yet, despite its threats, Tehran has yet to act.

Officially, the Iranians have said that they will not respond if there is a cease-fire in Gaza, but the fighting in the enclave continues. Moreover, even if, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken has asserted, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted the latest American cease-fire proposal — and it is unclear whether Netanyahu has done so unconditionally — Hamas has rejected it.

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