Where Is the Taliban Regime Three Years In?

William Byrd

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Three years after their rapid takeover of Afghanistan in 2021, the Taliban have consolidated control over the country’s territory and key levers of power—military, administrative, financial, and political. There is no organized armed opposition that would threaten the regime internally, and neighboring countries as well as great powers appear to have decided that living with the regime is preferable to trying to topple it in yet another civil war. And the Taliban have remained cohesive and united—unlike most past Afghan regimes—despite some friction and internal differences. But the Taliban regime is presiding over a failing economy with a deeply suffering population, and no improvement is in sight. The current confluence of internal and external factors points to a continuation of the status quo, which would be unfortunate for the Afghan people—though at least the country would not fall back into widespread civil war. Threats to the Taliban regime seem remote, but relations with Pakistan and the continuing opium ban, if not well managed, are probably the most important risks.

What the Taliban Brought and Inherited

The Taliban movement that came into power in 2021 was different in important respects from the previous iteration of the Taliban that took Kabul in 1996, even though the movement’s core ideology was largely the same. And the country the Taliban took over was very different from Afghanistan in the 1990s.

Whereas in 1996 the Taliban movement was nascent, by 2021 it had survived, learned, and evolved as an insurgency while facing sustained military pressure from the U.S., its allies, and Afghan government forces. In addition to its increasing tactical effectiveness and territorial expansion over time, the Taliban built organizational structures beyond the military sphere, including for revenue collection and local administration. In parts of the country under the group’s control, and along major transport routes, the Taliban insurgency issued tax receipts, mining permissions, and other edicts and orders. The movement’s capacity should not be overstated, however, and it was focused on winning the war (by outlasting the enemy).