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27 August 2024

What Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Reveals about Russia’s Role in Central Asia - Opinion

Alouddin Komilov, Otabek Akromov & Mirshohid Aslanov

The world was caught off guard by Ukraine’s bold and daring incursion into the Kursk region of Russia on August 6. This surprise attack by a smaller nation against a nuclear power has shattered Russian President Vladimir Putin’s carefully constructed narrative of greatness and invincibility. While Western observers have primarily focused on the tactical advances made by Ukrainian forces, this attack has also unveiled more profound strategic vulnerabilities of Russia’s standing as a supposed great power. Notably, even Russia’s closest allies within the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)–Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan–have provided neither military nor political backing, leaving Moscow isolated in this conflict.

The CSTO, established in 2002, was initially intended to counter external aggression against its members and harmonize foreign policy stances. Much like Article Five of the North Atlantic Treaty, the CSTO members are bound by the principles of collective defense. Article Four of the organization’s charter states that if a bloc member is subjected to aggression by another state or group of states, it will be considered an attack on all members. However, the stark inaction of Russian allies within the CSTO in response to the recent Kursk incursion can be viewed as a final and decisive blow to the credibility of the Moscow-led military-political alliance, reducing it to a mere ‘paper tiger.’

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