Ukraine’s Pivot Changes the Narrative in Russia’s war; Outcome Remains Unclear

Mary Glantz, Ph.D.

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Almost 30 months into Vladimir Putin’s brutalization of Ukraine with a full-scale invasion that has pulverized vast swaths of its farmlands, towns and cities, Ukrainians have surprised Putin and the world by driving the war back into Russia — a move that, if nothing else, has altered the current narrative around this conflict. Ukraine has again brandished its determination, initiative and innovation, effectively resetting assumptions in its defense against its much larger attacker. The possible outcomes of Ukraine’s strike remain varied and unpredictable — and its eventual implications will rest on the evolutions of several questions, both military and political.

Three Questions to Watch

Can Ukraine’s strike into Russia’s Kursk region force Russia to slow its attacks in Ukraine’s Donbas?

In recent weeks, Russia has made slow, steady advances in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, threatening the towns of Niu-York, Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. As of Wednesday (August 14), U.S. officials reported initial indications that some Russian forces have been pulled off the front line in Ukraine’s east and redirected to halt the incursion into Kursk. If the Ukrainian offensive can redirect enough Russian forces from eastern Ukraine to the Kursk region, this could be an important win for Ukraine.