Martin N Stanton, COL, USA (ret)
Introduction:
In recent weeks the Ukrainians have sustained a division (-) sized offensive deep into Russian territory southeast of Kursk traveling over the same ground that saw some of the largest tank battles in WW2. This offensive surprised the Russians and they have not been very effective in countering it. It is the most significant development in the Ukraine war in over a year. Below are some of my initial thoughts on this.
Some observations of the Ukrainian August offensive:
- The Ukrainians practiced good OPSEC – The offensive came as surprise to many observers in the West (including myself) and that’s good. The fact that they were able to mask the preparations for an attack of this size is impressive. It speaks well of their ability to hide important movements not only from the Russians but from friendly Western elements… that frequently leak like sieves (I would be fascinated to learn how much US representatives in Ukraine were told about it before the attack kicked off – I suspect not much). The ability to mass forces without drawing enemy attention in this drone / ISR intensive war is impressive. We need to go to school on how they did it and what kind of Russian reconnaissance threat they were facing.
- The Ukrainians had good Intelligence – The Ukrainians knew where the Russians were weak and penetrated there. They also appear to have had sufficient knowledge of Russian reserves and reinforcement capability to not get bogged down fighting on the first defensive belt and instead penetrate deeper – again, an unusual event in a war that has been relatively static in the manner of WW1 trench warfare for over a year. It will be interesting in the future to find out how much intelligence was provided by outside friends and how much was developed with indigenous ISR capabilities. How ever they obtained their knowledge of the Russians dispositions and capabilities in the critical sector, they made good use of it.
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