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15 August 2024

The New Kursk Offensive: Ukraine’s High-Stakes Gamble

Mark Temnycky

On August 7, numerous outlets reported that the Ukrainians had launched an attack on Russia’s Kursk province. The Russian region shares a border with Ukraine. It is also just north of the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv.

After two days, Ukrainian forces ventured up to thirty-five kilometers beyond the Russian border into the Kursk Oblast. Caught unawares by the Ukrainian incursion, the Russians have now declared a state of emergency. Dozens of residents in Kursk province called on their government to intervene, and the Russian military redirected troops and equipment to the region. On August 10, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that they had “thwarted” the Ukrainian assault, though fighting appears to continue approximately six miles within Russian territory.

Why did Ukraine launch the surprise attack? What will unfold from these developments? How will the Ukrainian attack on Kursk impact the Russo-Ukraine war? Analysts have had many competing theories.

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