George Friedman
Small things can reveal much larger geopolitical truths. Such is the case of a recent meeting of the U.S.-China financial working group. The group, which consists of representatives from each country’s central bank and government agencies, convened last week in China to do what it was designed to do: coordinate changes in their respective banking systems. These meetings happen fairly regularly, so the important thing here is to understand what is being coordinated and to what extent it affects each country’s economy.
On the surface, the U.S.-China relationship appears strained. Each side places weapons systems in positions that alarm the other. Each has close relations with nations that are hostile to the financial working group’s interest. There are “flare-ups” seemingly all the time. Only a few weeks ago, two Russian bombers joined two Chinese bombers to probe the airspace near Alaska, only to be closed in on by U.S. and Canadian interceptors. Then this week, a Chinese surveillance plane became the first Chinese military aircraft to violate the airspace of America’s ally Japan. The U.S. also has a close relationship with the Philippines, which is regularly challenged by China. And the U.S. continually undermines China’s interests by its stalwart support for Taiwan. The list goes on.
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