Mandar P. Oak
When India’s prime minister Narendra Modi addressed the nation on Independence Day, August 15, he outlined an ambitious vision of “Viksit Bharat“ meaning “developed India.” The deadline for this is 2047, the 100th anniversary of independence.
The target may be taken as a real per capita income of $20,000 in current dollar terms. If it gets there, India will find itself in the company of modestly rich European nations, such as Greece.
India’s current per capita income is $2,500, so the nation would need to achieve an eightfold increase in just 23 years. This is akin to chasing a 400-plus score in a one-day international cricket match, on a deteriorating wicket.
For India to reach this target will require bold strategies, Slow-and-steady, incremental policy making won’t be enough. The “asking rate” is 9.4 percent growth in real terms year after year for the next 23 years.
There have been a few such phenomenal chases in history. Some East Asian economies such as South Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan grew from the mid-1960s to the early 1990s at an impressive pace of 8 percent. This is widely known as the East Asian Miracle. After its 1978 reforms, China also achieved its miracle, a nearly 10 percent growth rate over a sustained period.
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