Jamie Dettmer
The late American diplomat Richard Holbrooke, broker of the 1995 Dayton Accords ending the Bosnian War, used to say that warring parties will only strike a peace deal when both are exhausted and really want one.
In short, it’s all in the timing. Unfortunately, both of the wars raging now — in Ukraine and in the Levant — run afoul of Holbrooke’s rule.
Let’s take the Middle East first, and spare a thought for the indefatigable U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who’s had the thankless task of trying to broker a cease-fire between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
So far, Blinken’s dashes to Israel and flurry of meetings across the region have been exercises in hope over experience — as well as jet-lag endurance. Except for a brief truce last November, his efforts to silence the guns of war have come to naught, underscoring the complexity and scale of the crisis. And after this weekend’s massive Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon and Hezbollah’s drone and rocket attack on Israel, peace prospects look even dimmer.
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