Mick Ryan
The past few days in Ukraine have demonstrated, yet again, how surprise plays a major role in human competition and conflict. Regardless of the many technological developments which might inform or speed up decision-making in military and national security endeavours, surprise is an enduring feature of war.
Achieving surprise means that one can execute a plan that is unexpected by the enemy. Whether achieved through physical or virtual approaches, surprise generates a cognitive effect in one’s adversary. This feeling of perplexity, shock, and uncertainty in individuals as well as in teams, is designed by those seeking to achieve surprise to undermine an enemy’s cohesion and morale.
Soldiers, citizens and politicians have been surprised, consistently, over thousands of years of history. The writings of ancient historians such as Thucydides, Polybius, and Herodotus contain examples of nations or city states achieving victory by employing surprise, ruses and deception.
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