Stefan Wolff
The early hours of Sunday (Aug 25) saw one of the biggest clashes between Hezbollah and Israel since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. Reactions in the coming hours and days will determine whether the long-feared full-scale escalation towards a regional war is now under way.
The Iranian-backed, Lebanon-based militia group launched a barrage of more than 320 Katyusha rockets which it claims hit 11 military targets in Israel. Just prior to that, the Israeli military carried out strikes against alleged Hezbollah missile launch sites in southern Lebanon, which it said was to pre-empt a more deadly attack.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already vowed a tough response. The pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah on Sunday morning certainly indicates that, for now, Israel has both the intelligence and military capabilities to rein in its adversaries in the region.
TIMING OF HEZBOLLAH STRIKES
The timing of the Hezbollah strikes – especially the thwarted larger missile attacks – is telling.
It comes after yet another visit by United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken – his ninth since the start of the Gaza war – to the region that ended without any breakthrough on a ceasefire deal. While negotiations on a ceasefire, mediated by the US, Egypt and Qatar, have resumed in Cairo, an agreement remains elusive.
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