Six Observations—and Open Questions—on Ukraine’s Kursk Operation

Anastasiia Lapatina

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An unspecified number of Ukrainian troops crossed into Kursk Oblast, a Russian region that borders Ukraine to the southeast. Russia has been using the region to launch relentless missile attacks against Ukrainian cities. Now, the Ukrainian military says it controls more than 620 square miles of it.

The offensive comes amid a critically dire situation on the front line in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Oblast, prompting some to question whether committing resources to an operation with unclear goals is a good move. It also stretches the limits of where and how Western weaponry can be used.

It is still too early to determine what the Kursk operation means—whether it’s a flash in the pan or a strategically important development in what had become a mostly positional war of attrition. With the operation now a week old, however, it is safe to say it is not simply a border incursion similar to previous Ukrainian incursions into Russia. The following are six observations on the situation, elaborating on points I made in a podcast conversation with Benjamin Wittes and Eric Ciaramella:

First, the Kursk attack is distinct in the scale of resources deployed across the border. Ukraine is using a not insignificant number of its regular military formations. In previous attacks, Ukraine relied mainly on small numbers of Russians fighting for Ukraine in units like “Russia Volunteers Corps” and “Freedom of Russia Legion.”

Second, Ukraine was extremely secretive about the operation, so much so that senior officers were left in the dark until three days before the incursion began. Previous raids were primarily public relations stunts, with photos, videos, and commentary coming out of Ukraine every day.

Both the committed resources and the secrecy suggest that the operation’s goals are likely much broader than a PR splash in the headlines, even if the goals weren’t initially clear.

After a week-long media blackout, one with no major leaks or substantive comments from the country’s leadership, Kyiv finally broke the silence on what it was doing: preventing Russia from sending reinforcements to the eastern front and stopping Russian cross-border strikes against Ukraine’s Sumy Oblast.