Russia Is Being Drawn Deeper Into the Middle East Conflict

Nikita Smagin

Source Link

Carnegie Politika is a digital publication that features unmatched analysis and insight on Russia, Ukraine and the wider region. For nearly a decade, Carnegie Politika has published contributions from members of Carnegie’s global network of scholars and well-known outside contributors and has helped drive important strategic conversations and policy debates.Learn More

The Middle East is experiencing a level of conflict unseen for decades. The spiral of escalation that began with the terrorist attacks against Israel on October 7, 2023, has now lasted almost a year and looks increasingly less like an aberration and more like a new stage in the region’s history.

For many years, Russia has striven to keep its distance from events in the Middle East, maintaining channels of communication with all parties. But the new, post-October 7 reality has made this an ever more difficult tightrope to walk. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine led Moscow to seek warmer relations with Iran, which has caused serious concern in the United States and Israel. That concern has been aggravated by the confrontation between the United States and Russia, which pushes Moscow further into Tehran’s arms. Even if Russia would like to continue to perform a balancing act in the Middle East, regional powers increasingly believe it has taken a side—and they will act accordingly.

Moscow’s deepening ties with Tehran have been obvious since the start of the war in Ukraine. In official statements, Russia often now takes Iran’s side against Israel, while in Syria, the two sides team up to pressure the United States, with Russian jets maneuvering dangerously close to U.S. aircraft while pro-Iranian groups attack U.S. assets on the ground.

Nevertheless, Russia has not been in a hurry to ditch its previous role as a mediator. Even though there is no longer any dialogue between Moscow and Washington, Moscow continues to try to talk to other powers—even Israel. That is entirely rational: after all, a full-on spat could lead to Israel retaliating, perhaps by sending arms to Ukraine. As time passes, however, Russia will find it harder to claim neutrality while deepening its cooperation with Iran.