Hal Brands
As America’s presidential campaign nears its climax, domestic politics and geopolitics are combining to stimulate an important strategic debate. Briefly stated, the question is: Should Washington deprioritize, perhaps even disengage from, regions outside East Asia so it can concentrate on the threat posed by China?
Global events are making that debate more pressing. The US is struggling to manage wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, even as the Chinese military buildup nears an ominous crescendo. Washington is finding it ever harder to contain an axis of autocracies that is pressing on several fronts at once. And if Donald Trump regains the presidency this November, US foreign policy could be steered by people who believe that it is truly time to put Asia First.
This Asia First movement features think-tankers, prominent Republican senators, and — more ambiguously — the former president himself.
They argue that China, not Russia or Iran, is America’s primary rival, and that every dollar, missile or minute spent dealing with secondary problems raises the risk of crushing defeat in the region that matters most. Whether they know it or not, they are echoing an Asia First movement from an earlier great-power struggle.
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