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26 August 2024

Putin has not taken the bait: will Kursk offensive backfire on Ukraine?

Konstantinos Bogdanos

Ukraine has surprised the world with an impressive offensive into the Kursk oblast. Its armed forces clearly caught the Russian army off guard and have so far achieved a victory nobody expected. But could this backfire for Ukraine in the near future?

Rather than another border skirmish, this time Ukraine planned and executed a full-scale invasion into Russian territory. It even took the Russians a good couple of days before they realised what was going on.

At the moment Ukraine has captured and controls about 500 km² of Russian land. On the tactical level, Ukraine’s assault has performed brilliantly. But what is the strategic objective of such a bold and daring move?

First of all, military analysts suggest, Ukraine aimed at relieving stress off the conflict’s southern front where Russians have been steadily advancing during the last months.

Ukrainian generals had most probably expected that the Russian high command would order troops fighting in the southern provinces of Donbass to move to Kursk so as to avoid loss of Russian soil. This did not happen.

Then, as the BBC has suggested, Zelensky may have wanted to lure Vladimir Putin into a disproportionate reaction, possibly involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

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