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3 August 2024

Nepal Is Hardly China’s Best Bet in the Himalayas

Saroj Aryal and Jagannath Panda

In July, Nepal’s fractious politics witnessed yet another churning. The 72-year-old veteran politician Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) – labeled “pro-China” by the Chinese media itself during his first term – won a vote of confidence in the Parliament soon after being sworn in as prime minister for the fourth time.

Days later, Foreign Secretary Sewa Lamsal left for Kunming, China, to deliver the keynote address and hold bilateral meetings with high-level officials at the fifth China-South Asia Cooperation Forum. The forum is China’s attempt to coalesce South Asian states, notably excluding India, to create a “regional Himalayan bloc” as part of its bid to create a Sino-centric global order.

Do such events imply that China is gaining an irreversible edge over India in the neighborhood? The answer is more complicated than the headlines suggest.

Nepal’s new government is yet another coalition following a series of short-lived political arrangements. Oli’s ascension to power is based on a recent deal forged between the two largest parties, the Nepali Congress (NC) and the CPN-UML, which among other factors also includes the sharing of the prime ministerial position between Oli and NC President Sher Bahadur Deuba. The previous Pushpa Kamal Dahal-led “left-unity” coalition broke down only months after being formed, without any major apparent disagreements.

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