NATO Is Not Ready for War: Assessing the Military Balance between the Alliance and Russia

Can Kasapoğlu

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Part 1: Assessing the Russian Geopolitical Threat to NATO

The Russian Military Is Prepared for a Long War

Through his invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has made clear that the freedom and security of Europe depend on the West’s ability to deter and defend against Russia. Unfortunately, while Russia is taking enormous losses in Ukraine, it is learning and rapidly reconstituting its military. On the eve of the Washington summit, the Kremlin’s ability to threaten the North Atlantic Treaty Organization with military force is real and pressing.

Russia’s military policy to wear down Ukraine and the West by sustaining a prolonged war depends on a stable wartime economy footing, a resilient defense industry, and three principal warfighting capabilities: artillery, heavy armor, and manpower. Like the Soviet Red Army, Putin’s combat formations rely on mass firepower, large amounts of heavy armor, and massed troop formations with favorable force-to-terrain and force-on-force ratios. In the meantime, drone and missile strikes terrorize Ukrainian population centers.