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20 August 2024

Myanmar’s Quagmire: China’s Strategic Interests And Indonesia’s Potential As A Peacebroker – Analysis

Simon Hutagalung

The protracted conflict in Myanmar, known for its ongoing repression of opposition groups and ethnic minorities by the military junta, has resulted in significant regional instability. The recent meeting between former Myanmar military leader Than Shwe and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi underscores China’s increasing influence in the region. While China presents itself as a mediator, there are concerns about its true intentions and whether its actions are genuinely aimed at restoring peace or driven by self-interest.

Given these circumstances, it is crucial to critically examine Indonesia’s role and potential under President-Elect Prabowo to assume a bridging role in the diplomatic landscape of Southeast Asia. The political turmoil in Myanmar has persisted since the military coup in February 2021, which deposed the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. The junta’s rule has been characterised by severe crackdowns on dissent, widespread human rights abuses, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of individuals. Ethnic minority groups, particularly the Rohingya population, have faced considerable persecution, while the country’s economy has suffered due to mismanagement by the military.

The ongoing violence and instability in Myanmar have not only exacerbated the domestic crisis but also had far-reaching implications for regional security and international relations. In response to this situation, Myanmar has increasingly relied on China for support. The recent meeting between Than Shwe and Wang Yi highlights Myanmar’s dependence on Chinese assistance in sustaining the junta’s hold on power. Than Shwe’s request for help from China in restoring stability provides insight into the deepening relationship between the two nations. However, China’s involvement in Myanmar is primarily driven by strategic interests rather than altruistic motives.

China’s involvement in Myanmar is multifaceted. On the one hand, Beijing has offered diplomatic and military assistance to the junta, shielding it from international condemnation and sanctions. This support has been crucial in enabling the regime to survive despite widespread international isolation. On the other hand, China has also engaged with ethnic insurgent groups in Myanmar, helping to broker ceasefires and serving as a mediator in conflicts.

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