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13 August 2024

Iran's War and Peace Dilemma

Tom O'Connor

As Iran continues to weigh its options to retaliate for the killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh late last month in Tehran, an intense debate has emerged within the highest circles of the Islamic Republic as to how to strike back at Israel without further inflaming the regional crisis surrounding the ongoing war in the Gaza Strip.

A major escalation is not inevitable, however.

With U.S. President Joe Biden's administration now scrambling alongside mediators Egypt and Qatar to push both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and newly ascended Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar toward achieving a breakthrough on long-deadlocked ceasefire talks, a glimmer of hope exists for a rare moment of restraint in a region otherwise consumed by conflict.

But whether such an agreement is possible or would go far enough to satisfy Tehran and its allies' appetite for revenge remains an ominous variable that looms over the Middle East.

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