Joshua Yaphe
Nine months into the war in Gaza, Israel is still negotiating with Hamas under international pressure from the United States, regional neighbors, and protesters from around the world. It is the surest sign that the most likely outcome of this conflict is a return to the status quo that existed before October 7.
1) The targeted killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh removes the main conduit for communicating messages to Hamas leaders in Gaza, effectively leaving the far more irrational and unpredictable Yahya Sinwar in a position of almost sole authority for the movement.
2) It will be a long, slow road for Hamas to restore its financial and military strength, given the difficulties involved in reconstruction, Israel’s reluctance to allow the transfer of funds and materials, and the lack of economic activity for generating tax revenues.
3) Israel will probably impose buffer zones and nightly raids, maintaining its foothold along the Philadelphi Corridor and thereby creating a persistent set of issues to occupy international protestors.
Nevertheless, the most probable scenario moving forward is a return to Hamas dominating the Gaza Strip and the Israeli government at a loss for options on how to ensure long-term security. The public remarks by Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Daniel Hagari on June 19 and again on July 8 have only put a voice to what all sides should already know. And yet, none of these leaders appear to have thought through the implications of what happens when reality sets in for their publics.
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