Rany Ballout
Israel’s attacks on Hezbollah, and reportedly Hamas, on Tuesday and Wednesday mark a significant escalation in the Gaza war and bring Israel and Iran’s “axis of resistance” closer to all-out war than at any time since the October 7 Hamas attack. An Israeli airstrike on Tuesday killed Fuad Shukr, a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, in response to an attack (reportedly by Hezbollah, although the militant group denied it) on an Israeli-controlled Golan Heights on Saturday that killed twelve children and teenagers. On Wednesday, a detonation by an explosive device, reportedly by Israel, killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The world is now watching how Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran will respond to such attacks. Iran has reportedly vowed a direct retaliation to Haniyeh’s assassination. Yesterday, Hezbollah’s secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah indicated that Hezbollah is probing “a studied response” in the next few days to the killing of Shukr and what he characterized as Israeli aggression against Lebanon.
Understanding the information warfare and narratives of “purported” deterrence conducted by Hezbollah against Israel and the United States in the leading up to Israel’s recent attacks is critical since it may help provide insight into the nature of Hezbollah’s response to Israel’s attack. Such information warfare was in response to Israel’s persistent warning of a major military operation against the militant group. In particular, the scale of Hezbollah’s response, given its geostrategic proximity to Israel—and especially if it is coordinated with a direct attack by Iran—would determine if the low-level conflict will slide into a full-scale war.
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