Irene Mia
Venezuela has long held unique geopolitical significance in a region rarely seen as a major global player. While its vast oil reserves – the largest in the world – have traditionally underpinned its geo-economic clout, more recently its domestic dynamics have become a potent source of regional insecurity. Venezuela’s acute political and economic situation mean that re-integrating the country into the rules-based global community is now an international priority. Yet the interplay of domestic and geopolitical factors driving, and in turn, being driven by the Venezuela crisis complicate efforts towards this. The outcome of the 28 July presidential elections highlights the challenges at play.
Domestic crisis, regional insecurity and geopolitical tensions
Venezuela’s economic and political crisis under Nicolás Maduro’s increasingly authoritarian regime, coupled with its growing international isolation, has made it a flashpoint for regional insecurity. Poor economic management and widespread corruption, compounded by international sanctions, led to a dramatic shrinkage of almost 70% in Venezuela’s GDP between 2014 and 2020 amidst a period of hyperinflation starting in 2018. This economic collapse triggered the largest migration exodus in the Americas to date, with nearly 8 million Venezuelans fleeing, the majority to neighbouring countries. Beyond the humanitarian toll, the migration crisis has placed significant political and economic strains on destination countries, sparking bilateral and regional tensions. Additionally, the Maduro regime’s reliance on illicit economies and its protection of Colombian non-state armed groups have profoundly influenced regional armed conflict and insecurity dynamics.
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