Coexisting Influence: The Sino-American Competition in Europe

Spencer Whyte

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For decades, scholars have written on the decline of the United States (US), the rise of China, and the seemingly inevitable hegemonic competition between the powers as the international system morphs from a period of post-Cold War American unipolarity to something new (Mearsheimer 2001; Ikenberry 2008; Blackwill and Tellis 2015). Debate swirls as to China’s intentions as it rises, how the US should respond to its reduction in relative power capabilities, and whether or not a Chinese-dominated international system would differ in significant ways from the current world order. Tensions between the US and China have already begun to rise as evidenced by the Trump administration’s public ‘trade war’, the Biden administration’s diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing, and the ramping up of military capabilities on both sides in the South China Sea.

As these two poles on opposite ends of the globe battle for supremacy, another power is likely to have significant influence over the functioning of international politics: Europe. The continent of Europe is home to a number of developed and industrialized, populous and prosperous states that, combined under the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), hold significant military, economic, and cultural power. The combined economies of the EU and United Kingdom (UK) have the second-highest gross domestic product (GDP) in the world, trailing only the US (World Bank 2021). The militaries of Europe are among some of the most advanced in the world, with nuclear capabilities independent of the American arsenal. If China wants to de-throne the US as the leader of the international system, or achieve a system of shared hegemony, it will likely need to at least weaken the trans-Atlantic alliance that has bolstered American predominance since the end of World War II. At the same time, if the US hopes to stave off China’s growth in power, it will likely need its European allies to help curb the economic giant’s continued ascendence.