China seeks to ‘wear down Taiwan’s reliance’ with covert economic and cyber operations, US wargamers say

Matt Demczyk

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Over the next few years, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) will continue to target democratic, self-ruled Taiwan with “gray zone” tactics and an “anaconda” strategy—slow-strangulation efforts that seek to force Taipei to bow to Beijing without drastic measures such as an invasion.

Experts say China will escalate its efforts to disrupt the island’s economy by targeting critical industries and infrastructure and scale-up covert cyberwar operations that provide Beijing with just enough cover to maintain plausible deniability.

A recent U.S. wargame team from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a nonpartisan research institute, visited Taiwan in early August to hold the first-ever tabletop exercise focusing on economic and cybercoercion from China against Taiwan. The FDD team pointed out that the cost of launching a cyberattack, for example, is significantly lower than the cost of defending against it. This asymmetry allows China to exert considerable pressure on Taiwan without triggering a direct U.S. military response.