Eric J. Uribe
As the invasion of Ukraine stretches into a third year of large-scale, modern combat, the evolving character of the war with battlefield innovations and subsequent counters, is drawing the attention of countries on the sidelines. This has created excited chatter in the American military about the need to develop countermeasures to drones, prioritizing hypersonic missile development to gain parity with Russian Zircons, and even reworking combined arms strategy to account for lessons learned. The war in Ukraine has certainly exposed technical challenges for the United States. However, the most significant threat the U.S. military faces in future conventional operations in Europe is not emerging battlefield technology or tactics but continued reliance on Russian oil. Overreliance on local oil, which still mainly originates from Russia, to sustain military operations, leaves U.S. forces and infrastructure vulnerable to Russian grey-zone warfare and Strategic Operations for the Destruction of Critically Important Targets (SODCIT), while constraining the United States's freedom of maneuver when developing military response options.
Oil and Gas: Russia's stranglehold on Europe
Petroleum, Oil, and Lubricants (POL) are the lifeblood of today's advanced, mechanized armies and are the primary means for modern armies to sustain operations. This thirst for oil and its distillates causes a conundrum for the United State and NATO. Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Europe was literally and figuratively tied to Russia via four pipelines. These arteries provided nearly 40% of Europe's natural gas, with some nations, such as Latvia and Germany, depending on Russia for 80% and 60% of their oil supply, respectively. These levels dropped dramatically in the wake of February 2022 as European countries scrambled to sever dependence on Russian oil and gas, with many countries reducing reliance on Russian fuels down to single-digit numbers. However, these efforts only addressed Russia’s historically marginal 4-5% stake in European Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) imports. But Russian crude oil and petroleum distillates continue their grip on Europe. As of 2023, the EU remains the number three importer of Russian crude oil, while Turkey is the number one purchaser of Russian oil products, much of which they resell to EU and NATO countries.
No comments:
Post a Comment