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5 August 2024

Are Israel and Iran Headed for All Out War?

Steven A. Cook

Steven Cook is Eni Enrico Mattei senior fellow for Middle East and Africa studies and director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations.

This is now more likely. The Israelis have been under attack from Iranian proxies since October 7. In recent weeks, the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) has clearly gone on the offensive with a raid on the port of Hodeida in Yemen that is under control of rebel Houthis, the strike Tuesday that killed Hezbollah military official Fuad Shukr in the suburbs of Lebanon’s capital Beirut, and the overnight assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

The Israelis—who have not yet taken responsibility for the Haniyeh assassination—are demonstrating both technical prowess and that they are serious about “changing the rules of the game” with the axis of resistance. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has vowed revenge for Haniyeh’s killing, which took place after the inauguration of the new Iranian president in the capital. There is little doubt that Hezbollah will also want revenge for the killing of Fuad Shukr. The Houthis will also no doubt take part in any retaliation that Iran plans. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, as well as militias in both Iraq and Syria under the auspices of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), make up Iran’s axis of resistance. The IRGC leadership has, since at least mid-2023, encouraged coordination among those groups. The conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has at times provided opportunity for this collaboration.

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