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6 August 2024

Annexation of Taiwan: A Defeat From Which the US and Its Allies Could Not Retreat

Andrew Erickson

Executive Summary

This paper addresses one of the most dangerous, consequential flashpoints on the planet today, and for years into the future: a potential attempt by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to annex Taiwan. The aftermath would likely trigger the worst economic shocks experienced in more than a century, unleashing a cycle of repression and diminishing the quality of life for populations across Asia and beyond, with devastating impacts on American interests and Americans’ well-being. Moreover, China’s annexation of Taiwan could exacerbate regional tensions and extend into a broader, global conflict. At stake are crucial interests such as the semiconductors that power today’s big data world and the national security of U.S. allies and partners. Neighboring states’ responses to PRC expansion could also result in the erosion of American military advantages as well as the destabilization of democracy and the international order.

With Xi Jinping, the paramount leader of the PRC, consolidating power and approaching the zenith of his ambitions and ability to execute them, this increasingly worrisome scenario and its profound implications demand immediate attention. With so much at stake, it is critical to take proactive measures to avert such a crisis. U.S. policymakers must urgently double down on efforts to deter Xi throughout this “decade of maximum danger.”

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