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8 July 2024

Ukraine Military Situation: Russia Fortifying Newly Occupied Territory – Analysis

Can Kasapoğlu

Battlefield Assessment

As the Ukrainian Air Force awaits delivery of F-16 fighter aircraft, Russian forces struck Myrhorod Air Base in Poltava Oblast, reportedly destroying at least one Ukrainian Su-27 fighter and damaging other aircraft. The attack demonstrated that Russia possesses the advanced tactical intelligence and strike capabilities to conduct real-time drone reconnaissance over a target area before hitting it with SS-26 Iskander ballistic missiles. To combat these capabilities, Ukraine needs to hone a strategy to base and fly the NATO-grade airpower it is soon to receive.

Last week Russia also continued to push along multiple axes, focusing on critical hotspots including Kharkiv, Chasiv Yar, and areas adjacent to the Russian-held city of Avdiivka. On the front in southern Ukraine, Russian forces continued offensive efforts near Zaporizhzhia but failed to register meaningful territorial gains.

Fighting was deadlocked along the Kharkiv axis, where Russia faces a costly but sustainable war of attrition. The Kremlin has deployed additional personnel to the front lines to mitigate heavy losses in some of its most important units, such as the Russian Airborne Forces (VDV). Moscow is also taking losses in strategically important units such as the Phoenix engineering battalion, a key combat formation that specializes in drones and mines, which has reportedly mined northern Kharkiv to deny territory to the Ukrainian military. Unsurprisingly, Russia’s storm units, which it often uses as cannon fodder, also took heavy casualties.

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