Shira Efron and Michael J. Koplow
Since April, nine countries—Armenia, the Bahamas, Barbados, Ireland, Jamaica, Norway, Slovenia, Spain, and Trinidad and Tobago—have formally recognized the state of Palestine. Belgium, Luxembourg, and Malta have hinted that they may soon follow suit. So has the United Kingdom’s new prime minister, Keir Starmer; in France, meanwhile, left-wing parties that joined the coalition that won the country’s recent election advocated for recognition. Nearly as many countries now recognize the state of Palestine (149, as well as one disputed territory, Western Sahara) as recognize Israel (165). The accelerating pace of recognitions could soon bring the two countries close to parity—and significantly, the new wave of states recognizing Palestine includes several large Western European countries whose leaders have openly said that they hope the rest of Europe will follow their lead.
The new recognitions of Palestine constitute a symbolic act of frustration with the bloody war in Gaza and Israeli policies in the West Bank. Leaders of the countries now recognizing Palestine have also indicated that they hope diplomatic recognition will have practical effects on the ground, boosting Palestinians’ sovereignty and bargaining power and improving the chances that the war could end with a successful two-state solution. Most of the outside actors trying to broker a long-term cease-fire between Israel and Hamas believe that advancing the creation of a viable Palestinian state must underpin any such deal. Norway’s prime minister, Jonas Gahr Store, called recognizing Palestine “an investment in the only solution that can bring lasting peace in the Middle East.”
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