Joseph S. Nye
Avril Haines, the US director of national intelligence, warned in March that ‘Russia’s need for support in the context of Ukraine has forced it to grant some long-sought concessions to China, North Korea and Iran with the potential to undermine, among other things, long-held non-proliferation norms.’
How much does this matter? Some theorists have long been sceptical about efforts to limit the spread of nuclear weapons, even arguing that proliferation can be a stabilising force. If the horrors associated with nuclear weapons are one reason why there have been no wars between great powers since 1945, they argue, perhaps the same effect can be replicated at the regional level. India and Pakistan developed a nuclear balance in the 1990s, and there have been no disastrous consequences so far.
But would prudence still prevail in a world of ‘nuclear-armed porcupines?’ US President John F. Kennedy did not think so. As he put it during a March 1963 press conference,
With all of the history of war, and the human race’s history, unfortunately has been a good deal more war than peace, with nuclear weapons distributed all through the world, and available, and the strong reluctance of any people to accept defeat, I see the possibility in the 1970’s of the President of the United States having to face a world in which 15 or 20 or 25 nations may have these weapons. I regard that as the greatest possible danger and hazard.
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