Hanna Dohmen, Jacob Feldgoise, and Charles Kupchan
In 2022, amid rising U.S.-Chinese tensions, the Biden administration rolled out export controls to prevent Beijing from obtaining advanced semiconductors and the equipment to produce them domestically. The stated objective of these restrictions was to deny China the cutting-edge AI capabilities it could use to modernize its nuclear and conventional weapons. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo insisted that the controls were “laser-focused” on impeding Beijing’s military development. But these measures may also protect the United States’ technological and economic edge over China. Although leadership in AI is not officially stipulated as an aim of the restrictions, U.S. officials, including Raimondo and U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, have regularly asserted that it is central to the country’s competitive economic advantage, which in turn advances its national security.
But the chip controls will probably fall short of achieving either outcome. They are unlikely to substantially slow Beijing’s military modernization, much of which can be accomplished using older legacy chips. Where cutting-edge AI chips are needed, the Chinese military can use previously imported chips, smuggled chips, and domestically designed and produced chips. The controls will likely be more consequential when it comes to enabling the United States to maintain its technological edge. By impeding China’s ability to develop and deploy AI throughout its economy, the export restrictions could slow China’s growth and curb its competitiveness, thereby helping the United States stay ahead.
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